NEW: a common response to reports of hospitals struggling this winter is "it’s no different to a bad flu season!"
I’ve tracked down historical data on flu ICU admissions, including winter 2017-18, a record high.
Here’s how England’s Covid winter compares to a bad flu season 📹
This is the problem many of us have been concerned about - immune escape from new SARS-CoV-2 variants in addition to their increased transmission. In this case, in a quick (single?) evolutionary 'jump'.
No way to sugar coat it - this is not good news.
Great summary ~40mins in.
Preliminary data from South Africa suggests that the novel variant 501.V2 wasn't recognised by antibodies in 21/44 serum samples collected from people infected in the first wave - worth watching today's presentation for more info & caveats invidious.snopyta.org/watch?v=Ja_tLG8C…
COVID vaccinations in Israel
• light green = share with the second dose
• dark green = share with the first dose
In the oldest three age brackets – people older than 70 – around 80% have now received the first dose of the COVID vaccination.
datadashboard.health.gov.il/…
I've spent the day looking at the data on the UK's vaccination programme
It feels dangerously optimistic to say so but there are strong signs that things are going to be.... not awful
A thread on where we're at
Here is some *much* better news.
Rates of COVID-19 vaccination have picked up *massively* in the last week.
Yesterday, we reported vaccinating over a quarter of a million people. In a day. That's pretty amazing.
In more positive news, case rates & test positivity have been falling for over a week across most of England, suggesting current restrictions are working.
R is almost certainly currently below 1.
In time, this should ease hospital pressure, but we need to keep doing our part.
UK vaccination rollout also continues to pick up pace, reaching 279,000 shots delivered on Wednesday, the highest figure to date.
The light at the end of the tunnel is growing brighter, making it all the important that we keep the virus in check for these final weeks & months.